Finding Kyle Korver
Recently we have had the NBA Draft and top prospects scouted from around the globe have been on display. NBA teams all scouting these individuals for their skills and abilities to contribute in the NBA. Thousands of scouting reports have been developed, detailing everything from wingspan, vertical leap, 3 point shooting percentage, and speed around the court. These potential prospects tested for their skills and also their potential contribution moving forward in the NBA. These NBA’s pinning their organisations hopes and dreams on this next group of young players.
The importance of getting the draft process right is clearly backed up by scientific studies which have long suggest that a small proportion of the workforce tends to drive a large proportion of organisational results. Studies on organisational workforce output have followed Pareto’s principle:
- the top 1% of the workforce accounts for 10% of organizational output
- the top 5% of the workforce accounts for 25%, of organizational output
- the top 20% of the workforce accounts for 80% of organizational output
Looking across the NBA we can see how true this is for teams in the league. Look at the Cleveland Cavaliers points output in the league. The team averaged 110.9 points per game, Cleveland’s clear best performer Lebron James averaged 27.5 points per game during this period. That is 25% of the organizational output. Kevin Love, Cleveland’s widely considered second best player accounted for 15.8% of the total points output during this time. Cleveland’s two best players contributed to 40% of the total points generated.
Cleveland had 22 players who contributed to this point tally during the course of the regular season. This means that top 5% (Lebron James) of Cleveland Cavaliers workforce produced 25% of the organizational output. A classic case of Pareto’s principle in action here. Its clear how important it is in basketball but just like any workplace that high performers drive key results in the group. Clearly the benefits gained from these individuals can be the difference maker, and in particular for achieving a championship win for an organization like the Cavaliers.
So, there is so much need to get the draft process right. To identify those that will eventually go on and be the high performers an organization desperately needs. But the process in basketball appears to be broken. There is so much information on potential basketballers, probably more information gained then any other workplace in the world. Every second of players on the job performance is recorded during their colleague and high school basketball days. Footage of their training regime is available for basketball teams to review, and potential prospects are brought in for multiple work outs with teams in both team and individual settings.
Yet the process is broken
Clearly with all this fantastic data available to scout these potential pro’s, the best teams should be able to pick who the best performers should be. Each year the draft picks would reflect this, with the number 1 pick being the best performer of the group over the course of a career. But this is certainly not the case. Just look at the classic 2003 NBA Draft. The top 5 looked like this; Lebron James 1st pick, Carmelo Anthony 2, Chris Bosh 3 and Dwyane Wade 5. But what happened with draft pick number 2? Well that was Darko Milicic, considered one of the NBA’s biggest busts. With so much talent available in this draft, the Detroit Pistons made a horrible error with this pick.
But what happened? Here are some of the scouting reports on Darko at the time “Creative scorer who understands how to set up his defender off the dribble.” “Excellent finisher when receiving the ball on the break.” “Shows court awareness beyond his years”. Sounds like he has all the skills needed to be an elite player in the league. His skills we probably at an elite level compared to his peers at the time, but those skills didn’t result in high performance. Darko never saw a meaningful career in the NBA even with an elite level skills to build off.
But how about the 51st overall pick in the same 2003 NBA draft. Surely this player wouldn’t survive long in the league? Well this player just featured for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2018 NBA’s Finals. After 17 years in the NBA, including an All-Star appearance, Kyle Korver would be considered one of the most decorated shooters that league has ever seen. Surely if the draft was re-picked Korver would never have been selected as 51. Based on the list he would likely have come in number 6 after Dwayne Wade. Year after year, players whose skills aren’t rated highly, their physical attributes not considered elite enough, prove the best NBA scouts and General Managers wrong. The go on to have top careers in the NBA.
The draft scouting process gives some of the best reports on players in the world, but it lacks an interesting part however. It lacked any discussion around the research behind what makes high performance. Here is a group of elite basketballers all considered high performers in their own right, but some will separate and show they are better than the rest. There isn’t enough talk around what’s driving this separation.
A different approach to scouting prospects
Studies have shown that the skills an individual posses is only one indicator that they will be a high performer on the job. Yet the focus of a scouting process for new draft prospects is all based around skills. A players ability to shoot the ball, their ability to play defense, and their athletic qualities. It’s a bit like saying that the biggest driver of high performer in a sales role is the ability to speak articulately and to write a top note sales email. Yes both important skills to have, but it won’t be the only reason why that salesperson is the top performer in the team.
The research done by Daniel Goleman in his book “Working with Emotional Intelligence” identifies three motivational competencies consistent with high performers of any workplace.
These three motivational competencies are:
1. Achievement Drive: Striving to improve or meet a standard of excellence
2. Commitment: Embracing the organisations or groups vision and goals
3. Initiative and optimism: Twin competencies that mobilise people to seize opportunities and allow them to take setbacks and obstacles in their stride
So, the missing piece of the draft is the focus on what would be typical soft skills of potential prospects. Scouts talk about how high a player can jump, or good their shooting form is, buts its not the only factor in high performance. Yet this is what scouts have been taught to do, measure the easily measurable to be able to compare prospects. What instead they should be the focused on should be those extra areas that make an individual, everything off the court that drives a person. Identifying these competencies will give a richer picture of a potential prospects likelihood of becoming a high performer.
The research indicates that demonstrating the knowledge and skill it takes to perform the key tasks that make up the job is the best leading indicator of high performance. The research adapted from I.Robinson and M.Smith, Personnel Selection (2001) British Psychological Social says that Cognitive ability tests with behavioral assessments are the next best indicators of performance followed by structured interviews. The least likely job performance indicators, Age. A draft prospect coming out at 18 vs 22 makes no difference to whether they will perform on the job or not.
Do Scouts and GM’s have it right?
So, Scouts and General Managers have got it right.
The best indicators of high performance is the footage of their potential prospects playing the game they are going to be hired to do. But there is more that can be done and there are other pieces that are missing. It is these soft skills, that drive the development of those much needed skills and performance on the job. The level of achievement drive a prospect has will determine with they will strive to continuously improve push themselves further. The level of commitment they have for their teams vision and goals will determine how much effort they will put into their development. Whilst strong levels of initiative and optimism will mean that players will handle set backs better and take the opportunities on the court they are given. These are all traits of successful individuals, and ones that every organisation wants.
There are players who are out there with better shooting ability than Lebron. There are players who are faster than Lebron James is on the court. There are players who are better at defense than Lebron is. But Lebron’s soft skills are some of the best in the league. His achievement drive is elite, he’s always striving to be the greatest to ever play the game. His commitment to the cause of winning the league is undeniably strong, and he’s always taking the positive initiative to control games and drag the team to a win.
Scouts, General Managers should spend more time testing players abilities to bring out these motivational competencies. Spend more time testing cognitive ability, spend more time on behavioral assessments and spend more time conducting structured interviews focused on motivational competencies. If teams can do they will improve the odds of finding Kyle Korvers at the end of the draft, and they’ll also find their championship odds improving as a result.
